Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) Issues Earnings Results

Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) issued its quarterly earnings data on Monday. The company reported $0.80 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.75 by $0.05, FiscalAI reports. Pagaya Technologies had a negative net margin of 15.32% and a positive return on equity of 31.59%. The firm had revenue of $334.81 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $348.75 million. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.17 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 19.8% compared to the same quarter last year.

Here are the key takeaways from Pagaya Technologies’ conference call:

• Pagaya reported full-year 2025 $1.3 billion revenue (+26% YoY), $371 million adjusted EBITDA (+76% YoY), and $81 million GAAP net income, with Q4 GAAP net income of $34M and $80M operating cash flow.
• Management proactively tightened production late Q4, cutting approximately $100M–$150M of monthly high-risk volume (≈$1.5B annualized) to reduce tail-risk exposure, a move that will restrain near-term volume and revenue growth.
• Funding and capital stability strengthened via forward-flow agreements across personal, auto, and POS, new revolving ABS structures (~$3B revolving capacity), and recent ABS deals that were oversubscribed.
• Commercial momentum continues—Pagaya onboarded Achieve, GLS, and a leading North American BNPL and is expanding multi-product adoption (Direct Marketing Engine, Affiliate Optimizer, dual-look) to boost monetization and partner stickiness.
• 2026 guidance calls for measured growth — network volume $11.25B–$13B, revenue $1.4B–$1.575B, Adjusted EBITDA $410M–$460M, GAAP net income $100M–$150M — and includes a governance-level $100M–$150M of credit-related impairments (not presented as a point forecast of losses).

Pagaya Technologies Stock Down 23.9%

NASDAQ:PGY opened at $14.19 on Tuesday. Pagaya Technologies has a 1 year low of $8.50 and a 1 year high of $44.99. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $22.16 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $27.75. The stock has a market cap of $1.14 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -5.31 and a beta of 5.85. The company has a current ratio of 11.41, a quick ratio of 11.41 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.16.

Analyst Ratings Changes

A number of research analysts recently issued reports on the company. Wall Street Zen cut Pagaya Technologies from a “strong-buy” rating to a “buy” rating in a report on Saturday, December 6th. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods dropped their target price on shares of Pagaya Technologies from $38.00 to $35.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a research note on Friday, January 2nd. Canaccord Genuity Group upped their target price on shares of Pagaya Technologies from $36.00 to $39.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, November 11th. Zacks Research lowered shares of Pagaya Technologies from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Monday, February 2nd. Finally, Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of Pagaya Technologies in a report on Friday, January 9th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eight have assigned a Buy rating, one has given a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Pagaya Technologies has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $37.25.

Key Stories Impacting Pagaya Technologies

Here are the key news stories impacting Pagaya Technologies this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 EPS beat and improving profitability — Pagaya reported $0.80 EPS vs. a $0.75 consensus and highlighted strong return on equity; this supports the thesis that unit economics and profitability metrics are improving. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst support remains — Stephens (Kyle Joseph) reiterated a Buy rating and $25 price target, arguing the pullback overstates risks given Pagaya’s profitability progress. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Full disclosure materials available — The company’s earnings call transcript, slide deck and shareholder letter provide detail on performance, assumptions and portfolio trends for anyone doing deeper due diligence. Read More. | Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Pre‑earnings interest in AI-driven model — There was pre-market buying interest based on Pagaya’s AI lending infrastructure narrative; this underpins longer-term growth expectations but is distinct from short‑term revenue/guidance impacts. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue miss and weaker top‑line guidance — Q4 revenue came in at $334.8M vs. roughly $348–349M consensus, and management gave FY‑2026 revenue guidance of $1.4B–$1.6B and Q1 revenue guidance of $315M–$335M, both under the Street’s current midpoint. That guidance shortfall is the primary driver of today’s selloff. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Large near‑term price reaction — Media coverage notes a sharp intraday decline (reported ~26% drop) tied to the revenue miss and conservative near‑term outlook, signaling elevated short‑term volatility. Read More.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other news, insider Tami Rosen sold 7,561 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, December 19th. The shares were sold at an average price of $30.73, for a total transaction of $232,349.53. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider directly owned 37,544 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $1,153,727.12. This trade represents a 16.76% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Also, CFO Evangelos Perros sold 9,750 shares of Pagaya Technologies stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, January 5th. The shares were sold at an average price of $22.99, for a total transaction of $224,152.50. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer owned 100,212 shares in the company, valued at $2,303,873.88. This trade represents a 8.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. In the last three months, insiders have sold 21,256 shares of company stock worth $547,198. Company insiders own 47.59% of the company’s stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Pagaya Technologies

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Intech Investment Management LLC grew its position in shares of Pagaya Technologies by 38.9% in the 4th quarter. Intech Investment Management LLC now owns 22,080 shares of the company’s stock valued at $461,000 after acquiring an additional 6,182 shares during the period. Geode Capital Management LLC grew its holdings in Pagaya Technologies by 9.0% during the fourth quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 651,469 shares of the company’s stock worth $13,614,000 after purchasing an additional 53,603 shares during the period. Advisory Services Network LLC increased its position in Pagaya Technologies by 23.7% during the third quarter. Advisory Services Network LLC now owns 10,987 shares of the company’s stock worth $326,000 after buying an additional 2,105 shares during the last quarter. Harvest Investment Services LLC bought a new stake in Pagaya Technologies in the third quarter valued at approximately $4,282,000. Finally, Oberweis Asset Management Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Pagaya Technologies in the third quarter valued at approximately $5,641,000. 57.14% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

About Pagaya Technologies

Pagaya Technologies is a financial technology company that applies artificial intelligence and machine learning to the credit and asset management industries. Through its proprietary data-driven platform, Pagaya analyzes vast datasets from consumer credit portfolios to build predictive risk models, enabling institutional investors to gain access to alternative credit products. The company’s solutions streamline underwriting, optimize portfolio construction and facilitate the efficient securitization of consumer loans, credit card receivables and other asset classes.

Founded in 2016 and headquartered in New York, Pagaya has expanded its operations to serve financial institutions and asset managers primarily in the United States.