BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Price Down 7.1% After Analyst Downgrade

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) was down 7.1% during trading on Tuesday after Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price target on the stock from $6.00 to $5.00. Cantor Fitzgerald currently has a neutral rating on the stock. BigBear.ai traded as low as $3.70 and last traded at $3.81. Approximately 51,773,371 shares were traded during mid-day trading, a decline of 22% from the average daily volume of 66,258,664 shares. The stock had previously closed at $4.10.

A number of other research firms have also commented on BBAI. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Saturday, January 10th. HC Wainwright reduced their target price on BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday. Finally, Weiss Ratings reiterated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a report on Wednesday, January 21st. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $5.00.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, CFO Sean Raymond Ricker sold 5,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, December 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $7.06, for a total transaction of $35,300.00. Following the transaction, the chief financial officer owned 488,716 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $3,450,334.96. This trade represents a 1.01% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Insiders own 0.54% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting BigBear.ai

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Company reduced debt dramatically, strengthened liquidity and positioned its balance sheet to invest and pursue growth — a structural positive that reduces bankruptcy/dilution risk and supports longer-term value. Balance Sheet Report
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) add FedRAMP-certified recurring revenue and expanded government/defense market access — potential revenue and margin tailwinds if integration and cross-selling succeed. MarketBeat Acquisitions Coverage
• Positive Sentiment: Earnings showed an EPS beat (loss narrower than expected) and management outlined a 17% revenue growth target for 2026 — signals that profitability trajectory may be improving even if near-term top-line is soft. Growth Target Article
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst actions are mixed: Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target to $5 and assigned a Neutral rating (reducing near-term optimism). Cantor Fitzgerald Note
• Neutral Sentiment: HC Wainwright lowered its target from $8 to $6 but kept a Buy rating — implicit confidence in upside despite trimming expectations. HC Wainwright Note
• Negative Sentiment: Quarterly revenue missed estimates materially ($27.3M vs. ~$33.3M expected) largely due to lower volume on certain military programs — a direct driver of the stock’s downward pressure. Q4 Revenue Miss
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 revenue guidance ($135M–$165M) came in below consensus (~$167.7M), signaling continued near-term top-line pressure and raising the risk of further multiple compression if growth lags. Guidance Release
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue fell ~37.7% year-over-year and margins remain negative — until revenue stabilizes, profitability expansion will be a challenge and could limit near-term upside. Financials Summary

Hedge Funds Weigh In On BigBear.ai

Several hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Vanguard Group Inc. lifted its position in shares of BigBear.ai by 18.4% in the fourth quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 32,695,344 shares of the company’s stock worth $176,555,000 after buying an additional 5,090,508 shares during the last quarter. UBS Group AG increased its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 145.7% during the 4th quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 10,386,833 shares of the company’s stock valued at $56,089,000 after acquiring an additional 6,158,665 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp raised its stake in shares of BigBear.ai by 33.6% in the 4th quarter. State Street Corp now owns 10,279,145 shares of the company’s stock valued at $55,507,000 after acquiring an additional 2,584,278 shares in the last quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC lifted its holdings in BigBear.ai by 35.9% in the 4th quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 10,247,877 shares of the company’s stock worth $55,347,000 after purchasing an additional 2,706,195 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Van ECK Associates Corp acquired a new stake in BigBear.ai in the 4th quarter worth approximately $46,675,000. 7.55% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

BigBear.ai Stock Down 7.1%

The stock has a market cap of $1.66 billion, a P/E ratio of -2.68 and a beta of 3.45. The business has a 50-day simple moving average of $5.21 and a 200-day simple moving average of $5.91. The company has a quick ratio of 3.13, a current ratio of 3.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.05) by $0.04. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 274.70% and a negative return on equity of 26.11%. The business had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $33.31 million. During the same quarter last year, the company posted ($0.43) earnings per share. BigBear.ai’s quarterly revenue was down 37.7% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts expect that BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. will post -0.28 EPS for the current year.

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.