Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its third quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.350-0.370 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 0.300. The company issued revenue guidance of $755.0 million-$805.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $765.1 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Up 2.0%

NYSE:GEO opened at $30.73 on Friday. Geo Group has a 1 year low of $12.51 and a 1 year high of $32.25. The company has a current ratio of 1.65, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00. The stock has a market cap of $4.11 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.50, a PEG ratio of 1.66 and a beta of 0.79. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $29.27 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $21.72.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a return on equity of 10.42% and a net margin of 10.31%.The business had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $721.43 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $0.22 EPS. Geo Group’s revenue for the quarter was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, equities analysts expect that Geo Group will post 1.3 earnings per share for the current year.

Analyst Ratings Changes

Several brokerages have recently issued reports on GEO. Northland Securities increased their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Friday, June 26th. JonesTrading upped their target price on shares of Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday. Wall Street Zen cut Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Finally, Weiss Ratings upgraded Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 9th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Geo Group presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $40.00.

Geo Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.28–$0.29 consensus range, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to approximately $732.1 million, exceeding estimates. GEO Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: 2026 outlook was raised above analyst expectations: GEO now expects full-year EPS of $1.27–$1.32, compared with consensus of $1.22, and revenue of $3.0 billion–$3.1 billion. Management also projects third-quarter EPS of $0.35–$0.37, above the $0.30 consensus estimate. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: ICE expansion and analyst support are strengthening the growth narrative: GEO is targeting additional ICE facility activations by the end of 2026 and outlined expected 2026 net income of $168 million–$175 million. JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and maintained a Buy rating, implying further upside from the referenced price. GEO Outlines 2026 Net Income Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Momentum screens highlight continued price strength: Recent performance has substantially outpaced the stock’s longer-term moving average, although such technical signals do not necessarily indicate that the gains will continue. GEO Group Price Strength Analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Some quarterly guidance was weaker: Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.28–$0.31 was below the $0.33 consensus estimate, creating a modest counterpoint to the otherwise favorable outlook. GEO is also facing questions from lawmakers regarding alleged violations at its Moshannon Valley facility, which could present reputational or regulatory risk. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in GEO. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% during the second quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $26,000 after acquiring an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its position in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after acquiring an additional 839 shares during the last quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 1.2% during the third quarter. CANADA LIFE ASSURANCE Co now owns 125,217 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,627,000 after acquiring an additional 1,444 shares during the period. Tidal Investments LLC lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 6.6% during the second quarter. Tidal Investments LLC now owns 23,595 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $565,000 after acquiring an additional 1,467 shares during the period. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV raised its position in shares of Geo Group by 19.3% in the fourth quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $188,000 after purchasing an additional 1,882 shares during the period. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.