Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Reaches New 12-Month Low – What’s Next?

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO)’s share price hit a new 52-week low during mid-day trading on Thursday . The company traded as low as $13.00 and last traded at $13.4030, with a volume of 1696711 shares. The stock had previously closed at $15.83.

Key Stories Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and strong top‑line growth — GEO reported total Q4 revenues of $707.7M, up ~16.5% year‑over‑year, signaling healthy contract activity and revenue momentum. View Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO — GEO announced CEO J. David Donahue will retire and Founder/Executive Chairman Dr. George Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, a move some investors may view as stabilizing because of Zoley’s long-standing operational experience. Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS in line with expectations — GEO reported $0.25 EPS, matching consensus and improving from $0.13 a year ago; that removes an outright earnings surprise as a catalyst. Earnings Coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Full release and investor materials posted — management provided a press release and slide deck with the quarter and 2026 outlook for review. Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below Street expectations — GEO set FY 2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 vs. consensus ~$1.27, a meaningful shortfall that likely pressured the stock. Company Results & Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Q1 guidance also below expectations — management guided Q1 2026 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25) and revenue guidance slightly under Street estimates, reinforcing concerns about near‑term earnings growth. Guidance Summary
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and ESG pressure persists — a denied rehearing on a legal injunction and reports of rejected shareholder proposals on human‑rights reviews add reputational and litigation risk that could weigh on valuation. No Rehearing Article ESG Coverage

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

A number of brokerages recently weighed in on GEO. Wall Street Zen upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a report on Saturday, December 13th. Jones Trading dropped their target price on shares of Geo Group from $50.00 to $37.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, November 7th. Weiss Ratings reiterated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Geo Group has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $35.00.

Geo Group Trading Down 13.6%

The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 1.62. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.90 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.08 and a beta of 0.73. The business has a fifty day simple moving average of $16.64 and a 200 day simple moving average of $18.38.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 EPS for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.41% and a return on equity of 7.42%. Geo Group’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.13 EPS. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. As a group, research analysts expect that Geo Group Inc will post 0.83 EPS for the current year.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. increased its position in shares of Geo Group by 4.6% in the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $2,213,000 after purchasing an additional 3,309 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC raised its position in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% in the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association bought a new stake in shares of Geo Group during the 1st quarter worth approximately $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 168.0% during the 1st quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $8,324,000 after acquiring an additional 178,622 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Yousif Capital Management LLC boosted its position in shares of Geo Group by 2.5% during the 2nd quarter. Yousif Capital Management LLC now owns 51,917 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $1,243,000 after acquiring an additional 1,256 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.