Jones Trading Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Stock Price

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) had its target price reduced by equities research analysts at Jones Trading from $37.00 to $33.00 in a report released on Friday,Benzinga reports. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the real estate investment trust’s stock. Jones Trading’s target price points to a potential upside of 145.52% from the company’s current price.

Several other equities analysts have also issued reports on the company. Wall Street Zen upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, December 29th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $34.00.

Geo Group Price Performance

Shares of Geo Group stock opened at $13.44 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 1.62. Geo Group has a 52-week low of $12.81 and a 52-week high of $32.09. The company has a fifty day moving average of $16.57 and a 200-day moving average of $18.34. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.87 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.91 and a beta of 0.73.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.41% and a return on equity of 7.42%. The business had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $667.23 million. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted $0.13 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. Equities research analysts expect that Geo Group will post 0.83 EPS for the current year.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

Several large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. raised its holdings in Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. IFP Advisors Inc bought a new position in Geo Group in the fourth quarter worth about $30,000. Bayforest Capital Ltd purchased a new stake in Geo Group in the fourth quarter worth about $37,000. Daytona Street Capital LLC bought a new stake in Geo Group during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $53,000. Finally, NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after acquiring an additional 839 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and year-over-year growth: GEO reported Q4 revenue of $707.7M (up 16.5% YoY), topping analyst estimates and showing improving top-line momentum. Business Wire: Q4 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO: Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. George C. Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, which investors may view as a stabilizing move given his long tenure. Business Wire: Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: EPS in line with estimates: GEO reported GAAP EPS of $0.25, matching consensus and up from $0.13 a year ago—earnings met expectations but didn’t surprise to the upside. Zacks: Earnings Match
• Negative Sentiment: Guidance well below Street expectations: GEO set FY‑2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), and provided revenue ranges slightly below/staggering versus estimates — the guidance cut is the primary driver of the stock weakness. Business Wire: Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and reputational pressures persist: A denied rehearing on an injunction and ongoing litigation/activist shareholder criticisms (including disputes over human-rights related votes) increase operational and reputational risk. Courthouse News: No Rehearing
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction reflects mixed print: Several outlets note shares moved down after the release as weak guidance outweighed the revenue beat. Investing.com: Market Reaction

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.