IBM lifts free-cash-flow outlook as revenue grows 5% (NYSE: IBM)

What happened

International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) said third-quarter revenue was $17.1 billion, up 5 percent and up 6 percent at constant currency.

IBM also said full-year constant-currency revenue growth should stay in the range of four to five percent, and free cash flow should rise by more than $1 billion year over year.

Key numbers

Metric Latest Change Source
Revenue $17.1 billion from $16.3 billion, +5% SEC 8-K
Software revenue $7.8 billion from $7.2 billion, +8% SEC 8-K
Net income $2.2 billion from $1.7 billion, +26% SEC 8-K
Free cash flow, nine months $7.8 billion from $7.2 billion, +$0.6 billion SEC 8-K
Total debt $63.8 billion +$2.6 billion SEC 8-K

Read more: International Business Machines (IBM) stock analysis and investment case

Why it matters

OptimistFi's case is that IBM can turn steady enterprise demand into reliable free cash flow and shareholder returns if software mix and pricing power hold. This filing supports that view with revenue growth and a higher full-year cash flow target.

Software revenue rose 8 percent to $7.8 billion. Infrastructure revenue rose 4 percent to $3.7 billion. Consulting revenue was flat at $5.3 billion. Gross profit margin slipped to 56.8 percent from 57.3 percent a year earlier, while operating pre-tax margin improved to 19.3 percent from 18.6 percent.

Year to date, IBM generated $11.8 billion of net cash from operating activities and $7.8 billion of free cash flow. Free cash flow was about 15.5 percent of nine-month revenue of $50.2 billion.

The company returned $1.6 billion to shareholders in dividends in the third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA was $4.9 billion, up from $4.6 billion a year earlier. IBM ended the quarter with $11.1 billion of cash, restricted cash and marketable securities, down $3.4 billion from year-end 2025.

The main caveat is leverage. Debt, including IBM Financing debt of $12.7 billion, totaled $63.8 billion, up $2.6 billion year to date. IBM also said it invested $11.4 billion in acquisitions this year. Investors still have to weigh cash generation against a larger debt load.

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What's next

IBM said its regular quarterly earnings conference call starts at 5:00 p.m. ET today. A call that confirms the four to five percent revenue guide and the more than $1 billion free-cash-flow increase would support the case. A softer read would weaken it. The board-approved dividend is payable on December 10, 2026 to stockholders of record on November 10, 2026.

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Originally published on OptimistFi, evidence-first equity research. More at optimistfi.com.