Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO) outlined its current asset base, near-term earnings priorities, and longer-term plans to scale sustainable aviation fuel production during a virtual investor conference presentation led by Eric Frey, the company’s vice president of finance and strategy.
Business lines tied to renewable, drop-in fuels
Frey said Gevo’s activities are “united by one thing”: starting with renewable, biomass-based carbon resources and converting them into “drop-in” fuels and chemicals compatible with existing engines and infrastructure. He emphasized the company’s focus on domestic, renewable feedstocks and a lower carbon footprint versus fossil-derived products.
- Gevo Fuels: an operating ethanol plant that produces ethanol and carbon dioxide, and a development pipeline focused on converting alcohol to jet fuel (alcohol-to-jet, or ATJ).
- Gevo RNG: dairy manure-to-renewable natural gas operations in Iowa, using digesters to capture methane and inject pipeline-quality gas into local pipeline systems.
- Verity: a wholly owned, cloud-based “track-and-trace” software business intended to provide an auditable chain of custody and emissions-related data across agricultural and biofuel supply chains.
- Gevo Chem: research and development work intended to improve ATJ technology over time, with Frey stating the company believes it can reduce operating expense to convert ethanol to jet fuel by roughly 20% to 30% through future generations of technology.
Leadership transition highlighted
Frey noted Gevo’s longtime leader Pat Gruber, the current CEO, plans to retire, and Paul Bloom—currently president and a director—will become CEO. Frey said Bloom has a PhD in chemistry and prior experience at ADM and Valspar. Frey also referenced recent leadership additions, including Leke joining as CFO about a year ago and Greg joining in an operations and engineering leadership role.
North Dakota acquisition and carbon capture platform
Frey described what he called a “transformative acquisition” completed last year: a North Dakota site that includes about 500 acres and an ethanol plant. He said the facility includes one of only three ethanol plants globally with “wholly owned carbon capture,” capturing concentrated fermentation CO2 and injecting it underground for long-term storage. He characterized the site as both an “engine of revenue and margin” today and a potential platform for future ATJ deployment.
He also discussed the company’s view of corn-based ethanol feedstocks, emphasizing that industrial corn used for milling and fermentation differs from corn typically consumed directly, and noted that a bushel of corn yields roughly “a third, a third, a third” by weight: ethanol, protein for animal feed, and carbon dioxide.
EBITDA targets and near-term levers
Frey said Gevo reported $6.7 million of EBITDA in the last quarter and believes it can reach roughly $40 million per year on an annualized basis “over the next several quarters” primarily by optimizing carbon accounting and sales without major capital spending.
He also discussed a larger EBITDA opportunity tied to maximizing the North Dakota asset, including fully utilizing carbon storage capacity and incremental volume increases. Frey said the site has “1 million tons per year of pore space,” which would require bringing in third-party CO2 to fully utilize. He described the potential for EBITDA of about $110 million before building a large ATJ plant, driven by improved carbon monetization and modest debottlenecking, citing self-funded capital on the order of “tens of millions,” such as “maybe 20” million dollars.
In the Q&A, he added that in Gevo’s 3Q filing, the Gevo North Dakota asset generated approximately $16 million to $17 million of EBITDA, which he annualized to around $70 million per year. He said the plant produces about 67 million gallons per year of ethanol, and argued that incremental production increases could significantly lift margins given the contribution from carbon-related value.
ATJ30 project: economics, financing discussions, and timing
Frey framed alcohol-to-jet as a way to increase jet fuel supply while producing a lower-carbon fuel, arguing it is difficult to electrify aviation and that jet fuel demand is rising relative to gasoline. He said refineries typically produce around 9% jet fuel, while an ATJ process can yield “like 90% jet fuel,” targeting aviation fuel more directly.
On economics, Frey stated the cost to make SAF via Gevo’s approach is about $3 to $4 per gallon, with additional value expected from the fuel’s low-carbon attributes. He said a planned commercial-scale ATJ facility in North Dakota would cost about $500 million to build and could generate approximately $150 million of EBITDA.
Regarding differentiation, Frey said other SAF pathways can be more expensive, citing HEFA as an example that can use corn oil as a feedstock—corn oil being a co-product of Gevo’s corn processing—making Gevo “upstream and integrated.” He also said Gevo has engineered a process that co-locates steps from corn-to-ethanol and ethanol-to-jet fuel in a way intended to reduce the carbon footprint and improve energy efficiency, including the potential use of renewable power.
On milestones and financing, Frey said Gevo is targeting a final investment decision (FID) in the second half of 2026. He noted the company previously received a conditional commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy—now referred to as the “Energy Dominance Fund”—for a $1.5 billion construction loan tied to a project originally planned in South Dakota. After acquiring the North Dakota site, Frey said Gevo filed an 8-K indicating the government was willing to discuss changing the loan scope to the North Dakota project, which he said would require less capital—about $500 million. He said the commitment period was extended until April to allow time to refine loan size, terms, and timing.
Frey said construction would take about 2 to 3 years after FID. During construction, he said Gevo would position the North Dakota facility as a “showcase” and pursue opportunities with other ethanol plants, including potential technology licensing or deploying capital alongside plant owners. He reiterated that the U.S. has about 180 ethanol plants and suggested the market could support building many similar ATJ facilities over time, while noting uncertainty around the pace and scale of deployment.
Verity update and Bushel integration
Frey described Verity as essential to proving the low-carbon claims associated with commodity molecules that are otherwise indistinguishable from fossil-derived fuels. He said Verity is designed to track data from farms through grain elevators and processing plants to end customers, while maintaining permissions and confidentiality for counterparties.
He discussed a recent integration with Bushel, saying Bushel already has widespread adoption with farms and grain elevators and that Gevo’s goal is for Verity to function as a “plugin” to Bushel’s systems. Frey said Gevo is already generating software-as-a-service revenue from Verity, though he characterized it as small, and said the company believes it could become meaningful if scaled.
In closing remarks on capital allocation, Frey summarized Gevo’s priorities as: optimizing existing assets to expand EBITDA without major new capital, investing modest self-funded capital to debottleneck and improve carbon economics, and pursuing larger-scale growth through financing and construction of a commercial ATJ facility intended to be replicated over time.
About Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO)
Gevo, Inc (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company that develops and produces low-carbon alternatives to petroleum-based products. The company’s core technology platform converts fermentable sugars into isobutanol, which can be further processed into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Gevo’s integrated biorefinery model combines fermentation, recovery, and downstream processing to deliver scalable, drop-in replacements for conventional fossil-derived hydrocarbons.
Gevo’s primary products include isobutanol, a four-carbon alcohol used as a building block for various fuels and chemicals, and hydrocarbon fuels that meet ASTM specifications for aviation and road transport.
