Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) Announces Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.05 EPS

Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) issued its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday. The industrial products company reported $0.29 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.34 by ($0.05), FiscalAI reports. Graphic Packaging had a net margin of 5.15% and a return on equity of 16.58%. The firm had revenue of $2.10 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $2.04 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned $0.59 EPS. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up .4% on a year-over-year basis. Graphic Packaging updated its FY 2026 guidance to 0.750-1.15 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Graphic Packaging’s conference call:

• New CEO Robbert Rietbroek has launched a comprehensive operational and portfolio review and established a Transformation Office to drive cost reductions, accountability, and faster commercialization across the business.
• Graphic Packaging expects $700–$800M of adjusted free cash flow in 2026, driven by inventory reductions, a drop in capital spending to about $450M, and operational improvements, and plans to use cash to pay down roughly $500M of debt en route to investment‑grade by 2030.
• Near‑term pressures persist from overcapacity in bleached paperboard and weak consumer demand: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA declined and 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to roughly $1.25–$1.5B (normalized $1.2–$1.4B) with Adjusted EPS of $0.75–$1.15, while production curtailments to cut inventory will weigh on near‑term earnings.
• The Waco Greenfield mill is substantially complete and should improve cost competitiveness, but total project spend rose to about $1.67B (including ~$80M capitalized interest) and management is reviewing the cost overruns.
• Management is refocusing on disciplined, customer‑centric organic growth and faster commercialization of innovations (e.g., PaceSetter Rainier, ProducePack, PaperSeal) to help restore volume growth and win share over time.

Graphic Packaging Stock Down 3.5%

Graphic Packaging stock traded down $0.49 during midday trading on Thursday, reaching $13.22. The stock had a trading volume of 1,868,296 shares, compared to its average volume of 6,435,909. Graphic Packaging has a 1-year low of $11.83 and a 1-year high of $28.19. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.50, a quick ratio of 0.63 and a current ratio of 1.30. The stock has a market capitalization of $3.90 billion, a P/E ratio of 9.02 and a beta of 0.62. The firm’s fifty day simple moving average is $15.27 and its 200-day simple moving average is $18.07.

Graphic Packaging Announces Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, January 7th. Investors of record on Monday, December 15th were issued a $0.11 dividend. This represents a $0.44 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 3.3%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, December 15th. Graphic Packaging’s dividend payout ratio is currently 29.73%.

Trending Headlines about Graphic Packaging

Here are the key news stories impacting Graphic Packaging this week:

• Positive Sentiment: New CEO announced cost actions, a portfolio review and a $700–$800M free‑cash‑flow target for 2026 — this gives a clear deleveraging/cash recovery path that could underpin shareholder returns over time. Graphic Packaging targets $700M–$800M free cash flow in 2026 as new CEO initiates cost actions and portfolio review
• Positive Sentiment: Dividend/yield narrative: coverage noting GPK among materials stocks with attractive dividend yields may attract income investors while the company works through its turnaround. Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analysts Weigh In On 3 Materials Stocks With Over 3% Dividend Yields
• Neutral Sentiment: Detailed investor materials (earnings‑call slides) and full transcripts were published — useful for parsing management’s roadmap but contain both mitigating cost plans and near‑term margin headwinds. Graphic Packaging Holding Company 2025 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation
• Neutral Sentiment: Commentary pieces ask whether the post‑selloff (≈52% from highs in some coverage) creates a buying opportunity — highlights valuation debate but not consensus. Is Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) Now An Opportunity After A 52% Share Price Slide?
• Neutral Sentiment: Analysts show mixed views on GPK relative to peers; some cite cyclical risk and margin squeeze while others point to steady end‑market demand for packaging. Analysts Have Conflicting Sentiments on These Consumer Cyclical Companies: Graphic Packaging (GPK) and Chipotle (CMG)
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction: shares hit a new 12‑month low after the weak Q4 print and cautious outlook — signaling investor concern about near‑term profitability and execution. Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) Hits New 12-Month Low Following Weak Earnings
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 details and call transcripts emphasize margin pressures, weaker profit versus last year, and a cautious tone on recovery timing — these are the primary drivers of the stock’s decline today. Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: News coverage highlights that weaker Q4 profit and a cautious outlook have already driven notable share weakness, raising short‑term execution risk. Graphic Packaging slides as weaker Q4 profit and cautious outlook weigh on shares

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

A number of brokerages have recently commented on GPK. Royal Bank Of Canada set a $13.00 target price on shares of Graphic Packaging in a report on Wednesday. Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d+)” rating on shares of Graphic Packaging in a report on Monday, December 29th. Zacks Research downgraded Graphic Packaging from a “hold” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research report on Wednesday, January 14th. Raymond James Financial downgraded Graphic Packaging from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating in a report on Friday, October 17th. Finally, Citigroup restated a “neutral” rating on shares of Graphic Packaging in a research note on Thursday. Eight analysts have rated the stock with a Hold rating and three have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Graphic Packaging currently has an average rating of “Reduce” and a consensus target price of $17.00.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Graphic Packaging

Large investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Quarry LP raised its holdings in shares of Graphic Packaging by 282.0% during the 3rd quarter. Quarry LP now owns 1,547 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $30,000 after acquiring an additional 1,142 shares in the last quarter. Danske Bank A S acquired a new stake in Graphic Packaging during the 3rd quarter worth about $45,000. State of Wyoming lifted its holdings in shares of Graphic Packaging by 96.1% in the 2nd quarter. State of Wyoming now owns 3,527 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $74,000 after buying an additional 1,728 shares during the period. Vestcor Inc acquired a new stake in Graphic Packaging during the third quarter worth about $189,000. Finally, Brooklyn Investment Group lifted its holdings in Graphic Packaging by 348.8% in the third quarter. Brooklyn Investment Group now owns 11,504 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $225,000 after acquiring an additional 8,941 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 99.67% of the company’s stock.

About Graphic Packaging

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a leading provider of sustainable paperboard packaging solutions, offering a broad portfolio of products designed for food, beverage and other consumer goods markets. The company specializes in the manufacture of containerboard, folding cartons and engineered fill materials, as well as beverage packaging systems including paperboard cups, carriers and related components.

Through a network of manufacturing facilities across North America, Europe and Latin America, Graphic Packaging serves a diverse customer base that includes major consumer packaged goods companies, quick-service restaurants and retail chains.