Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.990-1.070 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 1.270. The company issued revenue guidance of $2.9 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q1 2026 guidance to 0.170-0.190 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Down 13.6%

Shares of Geo Group stock traded down $2.15 on Thursday, hitting $13.68. 5,584,797 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 1,756,342. Geo Group has a 12-month low of $12.81 and a 12-month high of $32.09. The company has a quick ratio of 1.62, a current ratio of 1.62 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02. The company has a market cap of $1.90 billion, a PE ratio of 8.08 and a beta of 0.73. The company has a 50-day moving average price of $16.64 and a 200 day moving average price of $18.38.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, meeting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 7.42% and a net margin of 9.41%.During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned $0.13 earnings per share. The company’s revenue was up 16.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. Sell-side analysts predict that Geo Group will post 0.83 earnings per share for the current year.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of brokerages recently issued reports on GEO. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Monday, December 29th. Jones Trading decreased their price target on shares of Geo Group from $50.00 to $37.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, November 7th. Wall Street Zen upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Saturday, December 13th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Geo Group currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $35.00.

Geo Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and strong top‑line growth — GEO reported total Q4 revenues of $707.7M, up ~16.5% year‑over‑year, signaling healthy contract activity and revenue momentum. View Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO — GEO announced CEO J. David Donahue will retire and Founder/Executive Chairman Dr. George Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, a move some investors may view as stabilizing because of Zoley’s long-standing operational experience. Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS in line with expectations — GEO reported $0.25 EPS, matching consensus and improving from $0.13 a year ago; that removes an outright earnings surprise as a catalyst. Earnings Coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Full release and investor materials posted — management provided a press release and slide deck with the quarter and 2026 outlook for review. Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below Street expectations — GEO set FY 2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 vs. consensus ~$1.27, a meaningful shortfall that likely pressured the stock. Company Results & Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Q1 guidance also below expectations — management guided Q1 2026 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25) and revenue guidance slightly under Street estimates, reinforcing concerns about near‑term earnings growth. Guidance Summary
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and ESG pressure persists — a denied rehearing on a legal injunction and reports of rejected shareholder proposals on human‑rights reviews add reputational and litigation risk that could weigh on valuation. No Rehearing Article ESG Coverage

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of large investors have recently bought and sold shares of GEO. Tidal Investments LLC increased its holdings in Geo Group by 6.6% during the 2nd quarter. Tidal Investments LLC now owns 23,595 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $565,000 after purchasing an additional 1,467 shares in the last quarter. Brevan Howard Capital Management LP boosted its holdings in Geo Group by 311.8% during the second quarter. Brevan Howard Capital Management LP now owns 37,674 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $902,000 after purchasing an additional 28,526 shares during the last quarter. Qube Research & Technologies Ltd bought a new position in Geo Group in the second quarter valued at $1,022,000. Walleye Capital LLC bought a new position in shares of Geo Group in the 2nd quarter valued at about $737,000. Finally, Los Angeles Capital Management LLC bought a new position in Geo Group in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $359,000. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.