NMI (NASDAQ:NMIH) Posts Earnings Results

NMI (NASDAQ:NMIH) issued its earnings results on Tuesday. The financial services provider reported $1.20 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.17 by $0.03, FiscalAI reports. NMI had a return on equity of 16.07% and a net margin of 55.05%.The business had revenue of $152.46 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $180.69 million. During the same period in the previous year, the company posted $1.07 earnings per share.

Here are the key takeaways from NMI’s conference call:

• Record full-year financials — $388.9 million net income (up 8%), $4.92 diluted EPS (up 11%) and a 16.2% return on equity; Q4 revenue was a record $180.7 million with GAAP net income of $94.2 million ($1.20/sh).
• Continued portfolio growth — ended 2025 with a record $221.4 billion of primary insurance in force, $49 billion of NIW for the year (Q4 NIW $14.2 billion), >680,000 policies outstanding and 1,700+ active lender accounts.
• Expanded risk-transfer and capital position — secured new quota‑share and excess‑of‑loss treaties providing forward‑flow coverage through 2028 at an estimated ~4% pre‑tax cost of capital, and reported $1.4 billion of excess PMIERs available assets.
• Signs of credit normalization — 12‑month persistency declined to 83.4% and defaults rose to 7,661 (year‑end default rate 1.12%), with Q4 claims expense increasing to $21.2 million, suggesting near‑term loss activity may rise as the portfolio seasons.
• Ongoing capital returns — repurchased $31 million of stock in Q4 (811k shares), $349 million repurchased since 2022 with $226 million capacity remaining and management indicating a ~\$25M/quarter buyback pacing while opportunistically accelerating purchases.

NMI Stock Down 0.3%

NMI stock traded down $0.12 on Thursday, hitting $40.80. 22,512 shares of the stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 494,099. The business’s fifty day simple moving average is $39.58 and its 200 day simple moving average is $38.54. The firm has a market cap of $3.14 billion, a P/E ratio of 8.31, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.21 and a beta of 0.64. The company has a current ratio of 0.86, a quick ratio of 0.86 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17. NMI has a 1 year low of $31.90 and a 1 year high of $43.20.

Key Stories Impacting NMI

Here are the key news stories impacting NMI this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 results delivered an EPS beat ($1.20 vs. $1.17 consensus) and solid full‑year net income of $388.9M ($4.92/sh). The company highlighted record revenue drivers and investment income in the release, supporting near‑term earnings credibility. GlobeNewswire: Q4 & FY2025 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Zacks Research raised estimates — increasing Q1 2027 to $1.40 from $1.38 and nudging FY2027 to $5.48 — signaling analyst confidence in ongoing earnings momentum. This upgrade is a direct positive catalyst for the share move. (Zacks research note summary)
• Positive Sentiment: Management reiterated an aggressive growth strategy and targets ( ~$221.4B insurance‑in‑force and mid‑teens returns through 2026) on the earnings call, which supports medium‑term revenue and ROE ambitions. Investors often reward visible growth targets when paired with disciplined expense/reinsurance plans. Seeking Alpha: Growth Strategy
• Neutral Sentiment: Media and analyst writeups offer deeper context (earnings call transcript, Q4 deep dives and highlights), useful for investors parsing revenue composition, reinsurance expansion and expense discipline. These pieces help explain drivers but don’t materially change fundamentals on their own. Yahoo Finance: Q4 Deep Dive TipRanks: Earnings Call Highlights
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue missed the consensus (reported $152.5M vs. ~$180.7M expected), and commentary highlights normalizing/higher loss ratios as older, lower‑risk vintages roll off—risks that could cap upside and pressure future margins. Analysts on Seeking Alpha argue forward EPS estimates may be optimistic given pricing pressure. Seeking Alpha: Normalizing Losses May Cap Upside
• Negative Sentiment: Short interest increased ~28% in late January (about 2.5% of float, ~4.0 days to cover), indicating some bearish positioning that could add downward pressure if sentiment shifts or if losses continue to rise.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

NMIH has been the subject of several recent research reports. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded NMI from a “market perform” rating to an “outperform” rating and upped their price target for the stock from $46.00 to $48.00 in a report on Thursday, December 18th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “buy (b)” rating on shares of NMI in a research report on Thursday, January 22nd. UBS Group set a $43.00 price objective on shares of NMI in a research note on Monday, January 12th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted their target price on NMI from $42.00 to $43.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research note on Monday, January 12th. Finally, Barclays raised their price objective on shares of NMI from $43.00 to $44.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a report on Tuesday, January 6th. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, NMI currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $43.00.

Insider Activity

In related news, Director Michael J. Embler sold 20,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, November 19th. The shares were sold at an average price of $36.90, for a total transaction of $738,000.00. Following the sale, the director owned 46,046 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $1,699,097.40. The trade was a 30.28% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. 3.00% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On NMI

Several large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Allworth Financial LP grew its stake in shares of NMI by 196.0% in the 3rd quarter. Allworth Financial LP now owns 660 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $25,000 after buying an additional 437 shares during the last quarter. Wilmington Savings Fund Society FSB boosted its holdings in NMI by 1,308.1% in the third quarter. Wilmington Savings Fund Society FSB now owns 1,915 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $73,000 after acquiring an additional 1,779 shares in the last quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC grew its stake in shares of NMI by 120.2% in the second quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 2,013 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $85,000 after acquiring an additional 1,099 shares during the last quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC grew its stake in shares of NMI by 95.2% in the second quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC now owns 3,613 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $152,000 after acquiring an additional 1,762 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Osaic Holdings Inc. increased its holdings in shares of NMI by 191.1% during the second quarter. Osaic Holdings Inc. now owns 4,587 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $177,000 after acquiring an additional 3,011 shares in the last quarter. 94.12% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About NMI

NMI Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: NMIH) is a publicly traded mortgage insurance company that provides private mortgage insurance to lenders across the United States and Canada. Through its principal subsidiary, National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, NMI underwrites and issues policies that protect originators and investors against losses arising from borrower default on residential mortgage loans. By mitigating credit risk on higher‐loan‐to‐value mortgages, the company supports homebuyers’ access to financing and contributes to overall market liquidity.

Beyond its core mortgage insurance products, NMI offers credit risk‐sharing and reinsurance solutions designed to help clients optimize capital utilization and manage portfolio exposure.