Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of $0.25, Briefing.com reports. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.41% and a return on equity of 7.42%. The company had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $667.23 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $0.13 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group updated its Q1 2026 guidance to 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance to 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Geo Group’s conference call:

• GEO announced the largest new‑business year in its history with awards that could add up to $520 million in incremental annualized revenue, driven by activation of five ICE facilities and expanded secure transportation services.
• Management secured a new 2‑year ICE F monitoring contract and a skip‑tracing award (~$60M/yr), and expects revenue upside from a mix shift toward higher‑priced ankle monitors and case management (ankle monitors rose from ~17k to >42k).
• 2026 guidance is conservative (FY revenue $2.9–$3.1B; Adjusted EBITDA $490–$510M) and Q1 is expected to be below Q4 due to front‑loaded payroll taxes, two fewer days, start‑up costs, and no assumed skip‑tracing revenue in Q1.
• Capital/financial moves strengthened liquidity and shareholder returns: sale of the Lawton facility ($312M), net debt reduced to ~$1.5B, a $100M revolver expansion, and an expanded $500M buyback (≈5M shares repurchased for ~$91M, ~$409M remaining).
• Key execution risks include possible DHS funding delays or partial shutdowns that can delay payments and activations, and ICE’s warehouse procurement initiative, which could slow or change the timing of awards for GEO’s ~6,000 idle high‑security beds.

Geo Group Price Performance

Geo Group stock traded up $0.87 during midday trading on Friday, hitting $14.34. 1,588,505 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 1,823,819. The company has a market cap of $2.00 billion, a P/E ratio of 8.40 and a beta of 0.73. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 1.62. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $16.57 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $18.34. Geo Group has a 52-week low of $12.81 and a 52-week high of $32.09.

Geo Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and improving top-line — GEO reported Q4 revenue of $707.7M versus consensus ~ $667M, with revenue up ~16.5% year/year; that top-line strength helped sentiment despite EPS broadly in line. View Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Founder/Chairman George Zoley to retake CEO role — GEO announced CEO J. David Donahue will retire Feb 28 and Dr. George Zoley returns as CEO effective March 1; investors often view founder returns as a stability/continuity signal. The GEO Group Announces Corporate Reorganization
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst keeps a buy rating despite trimming target — Jones Trading lowered its price target from $37 to $33 but maintained a “buy” rating, providing an upside thesis for longer-term investors. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: EPS roughly in line with expectations — GEO reported $0.25 EPS, matching consensus (up from $0.13 a year ago); some outlets frame this as a beat on revenue but flat on earnings. Zacks: Q4 Earnings Match
• Neutral Sentiment: Earnings materials available — The company released its Q4 slide deck and earnings call presentation/transcript for investors to review management commentary and details. Earnings Presentation
• Negative Sentiment: Weaker forward guidance — GEO set FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 vs. consensus ~ $1.27, and Q1 EPS guidance $0.17–$0.19 vs. consensus ~$0.25; the guidance cut is the main catalyst weighing on near-term valuation. Press Release (guidance)
• Negative Sentiment: Ongoing legal and reputation overhang — Coverage notes a denied rehearing on litigation matters and shareholder concerns (human-rights vote issues), creating regulatory and reputational risks that may pressure sentiment. CourtHouseNews: No Rehearing
• Negative Sentiment: Some media framed the quarter as mixed — outlets highlighted that an earnings “miss” or weak guidance overshadowed the revenue beat, driving short-term selling in parts of the day. Investing.com

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of GEO. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. increased its stake in Geo Group by 4.6% in the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $2,213,000 after acquiring an additional 3,309 shares during the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC raised its position in Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 839 shares during the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association bought a new position in shares of Geo Group during the first quarter valued at approximately $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC boosted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 168.0% during the 1st quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $8,324,000 after purchasing an additional 178,622 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Invesco Ltd. increased its position in shares of Geo Group by 4.2% during the second quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 1,308,817 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $31,346,000 after buying an additional 52,623 shares during the period. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

A number of research analysts have recently commented on the company. Jones Trading dropped their price target on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a report on Saturday, December 13th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $34.00.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.