GRAIL (NASDAQ:GRAL) Announces Earnings Results

GRAIL (NASDAQ:GRAL) announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The company reported ($2.44) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($3.33) by $0.89, Zacks reports. GRAIL had a negative net margin of 286.43% and a negative return on equity of 15.69%. The firm had revenue of $43.60 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $43.33 million.

Here are the key takeaways from GRAIL’s conference call:

• Top-line NHS‑Galleri results showed a >20% reduction in stage‑4 diagnoses in rounds 2–3, a fourfold higher overall cancer detection rate versus standard of care, increased stage‑1/2 detections, fewer emergency presentations, and no serious safety signals—what GRAIL calls the first randomized population‑scale stage shift for an MCED test.
• Despite those benefits, the trial did not meet its primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in combined stage‑3 and stage‑4 cancers; GRAIL plans to extend follow‑up by 6–12 months citing higher‑than‑expected stage‑3 incidence and expects effects may strengthen with more mature data.
• GRAIL completed its PMA submission to the FDA (end of January) using PATHFINDER2 and the NHS prevalent‑round data and anticipates a ~12‑month review, while new federal law creates a Medicare coverage pathway for FDA‑approved MCED tests.
• Commercial momentum continued: >185,000 U.S. Galleri tests sold in 2025 (volume +36%), U.S. revenue +26%, ~17,000 prescribers (+30%), and the company is expanding its field sales/medical teams while reiterating 2026 sales growth guidance of 22–32% and cash burn ≤$300M.
• Financials improved (higher adjusted gross profit and improved adjusted EBITDA) with $904M cash at year‑end, but royalty payments to Illumina (suspended until Dec 2026) will resume thereafter at a high single‑digit rate and are expected to pressure gross margins beginning in 2027.

GRAIL Stock Down 47.0%

GRAL stock traded down $47.68 during trading on Friday, hitting $53.85. The company had a trading volume of 6,392,097 shares, compared to its average volume of 936,238. The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $97.42 and a 200-day moving average price of $75.82. GRAIL has a 12 month low of $20.44 and a 12 month high of $118.84. The stock has a market cap of $2.10 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -4.60 and a beta of 4.52.

Key GRAIL News

Here are the key news stories impacting GRAIL this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Robert W. Baird upgraded GRAL to an Outperform, which may provide some analyst support and a counterweight to the selloff. GRAIL (NASDAQ:GRAL) Earns Outperform Rating from Analysts at Robert W. Baird
• Positive Sentiment: Q4 / FY2025 results beat EPS estimates (reported a smaller-than-expected loss) and revenue roughly met expectations; business metrics include ~185,000 Galleri tests sold in 2025 and U.S. Galleri revenue up 26% year-over-year, and management says cash runway extends into 2030 — all supportive of the company’s commercialization progress. GRAIL Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
• Neutral Sentiment: Company announced completion of the Galleri PMA submission to the FDA and shared topline NHS‑Galleri results that showed some favorable secondary signals (reduction in stage IV diagnoses and increased early‑stage detections), but the primary combined stage III‑IV reduction endpoint was not met — a mixed clinical readout. Landmark NHS-Galleri Trial Demonstrates…
• Neutral Sentiment: Full Q4 earnings call transcript is available for details on management commentary and forward guidance; useful for investors wanting color on commercialization plans and trial interpretation. GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: The immediate market driver: Reuters reports the three‑year NHS‑Galleri trial failed to meet its primary endpoint, prompting a dramatic premarket selloff as investors reassess the clinical and commercial outlook for the Galleri multi‑cancer blood test. Grail shares plunge after major cancer screening trial misses main goal
• Negative Sentiment: A law firm (Johnson Fistel) has launched an investor investigation into GRAL executives, which can increase legal and reputational risk and adds downward pressure on the stock amid the trial news. Grail Shareholders Are Encouraged to Reach Out to Johnson Fistel…

Hedge Funds Weigh In On GRAIL

Several large investors have recently made changes to their positions in GRAL. Farallon Capital Management LLC increased its position in GRAIL by 73.7% in the fourth quarter. Farallon Capital Management LLC now owns 2,342,684 shares of the company’s stock worth $200,510,000 after purchasing an additional 993,684 shares during the period. Morgan Stanley boosted its stake in shares of GRAIL by 63.8% in the 4th quarter. Morgan Stanley now owns 1,511,687 shares of the company’s stock valued at $129,385,000 after purchasing an additional 588,647 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp grew its position in shares of GRAIL by 38.8% during the 4th quarter. State Street Corp now owns 1,827,523 shares of the company’s stock worth $156,418,000 after buying an additional 510,546 shares during the period. Alyeska Investment Group L.P. acquired a new stake in shares of GRAIL during the 4th quarter worth approximately $37,874,000. Finally, RA Capital Management L.P. bought a new stake in shares of GRAIL during the fourth quarter worth approximately $36,655,000.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

Several research analysts recently issued reports on GRAL shares. Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of GRAIL in a research report on Thursday, January 22nd. Guggenheim boosted their price target on GRAIL from $100.00 to $130.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Monday, January 26th. Canaccord Genuity Group set a $80.00 price objective on GRAIL in a research note on Friday. TD Cowen initiated coverage on shares of GRAIL in a research note on Thursday. They issued a “hold” rating and a $114.00 target price on the stock. Finally, Morgan Stanley increased their target price on shares of GRAIL from $85.00 to $110.00 and gave the stock an “equal weight” rating in a research report on Monday, December 1st. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $98.50.

GRAIL Company Profile

GRAIL, Inc (NASDAQ: GRAL) is a biotechnology company dedicated to the early detection of cancer through a multi-cancer blood test. Leveraging advances in next-generation sequencing, cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis and machine learning, GRAIL has developed the Galleri™ test, which aims to identify more than 50 types of cancer at their earliest stages. The company’s platform analyzes methylation patterns in circulating tumor DNA to pinpoint tumor presence and tissue of origin, enabling physicians to pursue timely diagnostic follow-up.

Founded in 2016 as a spin-out from Illumina, GRAIL established its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, with additional research and operations centers in the United Kingdom.