Deutsche Post (ETR:DHL), which operates as DHL Group, reported third-quarter revenue growth of 13% and raised its 2026 earnings and cash flow guidance as demand strengthened across its logistics businesses.
Chief Financial Officer Melanie Kreis said on the company’s third-quarter earnings call that growth was broad-based across transport modes, regions and customer industries. Express was a standout, with daily shipment weight up 9.7% year over year and divisional earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, up 50%.
DHL raised its full-year outlook on Oct. 16 and now expects EBIT above €7 billion and free cash flow above €3.2 billion. It also increased its capital expenditure expectation to around €3.6 billion.
Express growth and market spillover
Kreis attributed much of the Express performance to the division’s “Smart Industrial Growth” strategy, which targets demand for reliable delivery of industrial goods, including heavier parts. She said technology, engineering and other business-to-business sectors contributed to the increase.
Some of the growth also reflected customers shifting shipments from conventional air freight into Express because of limited air freight capacity and higher rates. Kreis estimated that market conditions contributed roughly 2 percentage points to the 9.7% increase in daily weight.
The company estimated the resulting benefit to Express EBIT at around €100 million in the third quarter, down from approximately €150 million in the second quarter. Kreis said there could still be a benefit in the fourth quarter, but that it was not increasing directionally.
“There is real underlying growth from a very broad base of B2B customers,” Kreis said, adding that improved aircraft weight load factors, cost control and yield management also supported the division’s results.
Kreis said DHL’s direct exposure to data center logistics remains relatively small, even though demand is growing strongly. Its largest current effect on the company is through pressure on air freight capacity, which influences both Express and Global Forwarding, she said.
Forwarding and Supply Chain expand
DHL Global Forwarding increased air and ocean freight volumes while generating higher gross profit per unit than a year earlier, Kreis said. She said the division appeared to have gained market share in the second and third quarters, although it still has room to improve.
Air freight gross profit per unit was lower than in the second quarter, which Kreis described as an extraordinary period because of Middle East disruptions. She said air freight capacity could remain structurally constrained over the coming years, while substantial ocean freight capacity is being added.
In Supply Chain, Kreis said the business was establishing a quarterly EBIT run rate of €300 million and expected a strong fourth-quarter contribution. She said the division remained around its 6% margin target and cautioned against overinterpreting quarterly margin changes.
New Supply Chain contracts can take about 12 months to flow through to the income statement, depending on factors such as warehouse availability, Kreis said. The division accounted for a large share of the year-over-year increase in capital spending during the first nine months, as DHL invested to support new business.
The eCommerce division posted 6% organic revenue growth and roughly flat EBIT as it continued investing in its market positions, Kreis said. In the Post & Parcel division, the company continued adapting its networks to declining mail volumes and the shift toward parcels.
Cash flow, investment and pricing
DHL generated more than €2.5 billion in underlying free cash flow in the first nine months, excluding net mergers and acquisitions and IEEPA-related flows. Kreis said IEEPA reimbursements produced a net cash outflow of €256 million in the third quarter, after a net inflow in the second quarter.
The higher capital spending outlook reflects growth opportunities rather than catch-up investment, Kreis said. DHL may also pursue Express investments in the fourth quarter, she said, while maintaining capital allocation discipline. The company will review its midterm guidance when it releases annual results in March.
For Post & Parcel, DHL plans to apply a proposed mail price increase at the beginning of 2027 rather than splitting it between 2027 and 2028. The standard letter stamp would rise to €1.15 from €0.95, subject to final confirmation by Germany’s Federal Network Agency, Kreis said. Business parcel pricing is still being worked on.
Kreis said DHL expects a good contribution from Post & Parcel in 2027 after targeting more than €900 million in EBIT for the division this year. The company plans to provide its 2027 guidance in March and will decide on dividends and potential share buybacks after closing the 2026 books.
About Deutsche Post (ETR:DHL)
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce Solutions; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions.
