Kaspi.kz cuts Marketplace GMV guidance and EBITDA edges up 1% (NASDAQ: KSPI)

Posted by Teresa Graham on Nov 9th, 2026

What happened

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) grew third-quarter revenue 18% at constant currency, but adjusted EBITDA rose only 1%.

The company also lowered its 2026 Marketplace GMV growth guidance to around 12%. It cites lower value per item sold in Kazakhstan amid tenge appreciation.

In its Nov. 9 results release for the quarter ended Sept. 30, Kaspi.kz put revenue at KZT1.1 trillion ($2.5 billion). Adjusted EBITDA was KZT408 billion ($925 million). Net income was stable at KZT281 billion ($637 million). The board also proposed another quarterly dividend, subject to shareholder approval.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Consolidated revenue, constant currency, 3Q 2026	KZT1.1 trillion ($2.5 billion)	+18%	Kaspi.kz 3Q and 9M 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1)
Adjusted EBITDA, 3Q 2026	KZT408 billion ($925 million)	+1%	Kaspi.kz 3Q and 9M 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1)
Net income, 3Q 2026	KZT281 billion ($637 million)		Kaspi.kz 3Q and 9M 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1)
Marketplace revenue, constant currency, 3Q 2026	KZT466 billion ($1.1 billion)	+20%	Kaspi.kz 3Q and 9M 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1)
Fintech adjusted EBITDA, 3Q 2026	KZT179 billion ($406 million)	-1%	Kaspi.kz 3Q and 9M 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1)
2026 constant-currency Marketplace GMV growth guidance	around 12%		Kaspi.kz 3Q and 9M 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1)

How the currency hides the growth

On a reported basis, revenue growth was broadly flat. The company blames the Turkish lira, which fell 32% against the tenge over the year and cut the tenge value of its Türkiye business.

Constant-currency figures hold exchange rates steady from one year to the next. They show what results would have been without that swing.

The strong tenge also changes pricing in Kazakhstan. Merchants pass lower import costs on to shoppers, so e-Commerce items sold rose 24% while value per item sold fell 8%. That is why volume is growing faster than GMV.

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Marketplace revenue outruns sales volume

Marketplace is earning more from each tenge of goods sold. Constant-currency revenue rose 20% to KZT466 billion, while GMV rose 8% to KZT2.2 trillion ($4.9 billion). The take rate improved 90 basis points from a year earlier to 11.9%.

In e-Commerce, constant-currency revenue grew 23% to KZT343 billion ($779 million), against GMV growth of 17%. The third-party take rate rose 210 basis points to 16.3%. Value-added services revenue, which the company describes as advertising and delivery, grew 42%.

Marketplace adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to KZT124 billion ($281 million). The company says investment in Hepsiburada, which remains around breakeven, held that growth back.

Why it matters

The question for a holder is whether that monetization reaches profit. At group level it mostly did not, because Fintech and Payments earnings were flat to lower.

Fintech revenue rose 19% to KZT489 billion ($1.1 billion), helped by 14% growth in the average net loan portfolio. Adjusted EBITDA still fell 1% to KZT179 billion ($406 million). Average cost of funding rose 150 basis points to 14.9% after last year's rate increases in Kazakhstan. Savings grew 21%, ahead of the loan book.

Payments volume grew 14% to KZT13.6 trillion ($30.8 billion), but revenue rose only 6% to KZT182 billion ($413 million). The take rate slipped to 1.01% from 1.03%. The company calls this a product-mix shift consistent with long-run trends. Adjusted EBITDA of KZT105 billion ($238 million) was broadly stable, reflecting investment in Kaspi Alaqan.

OptimistFi has argued that Kaspi.kz compounds if its payments-led network keeps feeding marketplace and fintech profit pools without credit, regulation or international expansion eroding unit economics. The quarter is mixed for that view. Marketplace monetization supports it, while Fintech funding costs and Türkiye investment weigh on earnings.

Credit quality softened a little. The NPL ratio was 6.9% in the first nine months, against 6.1% for full-year 2025 and down slightly from the second quarter. Cost of risk was stable at 0.6%.

Guidance and the funding-cost relief

Kaspi.kz reiterated its goal of around 5% consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026. It says lower Fintech funding costs broadly offset softer GMV trends at the adjusted EBITDA level. The guidance assumes constant-currency exchange rates as of Jan. 1, 2026.

The relief comes from two 100 basis point cuts to the three-month deposit rate, in August and October. That product accounts for around a third of deposits. Management expects funding-cost pressure to ease from the fourth quarter, with a more meaningful earnings benefit in 2027. It also expects Türkiye investment to moderate significantly next year.

What's next

Shareholders meet on Dec. 9 at 10:00 Astana time in Almaty to vote on the dividend. A repeat meeting is set for Dec. 10 if there is no quorum. The proposed record date is Dec. 8.

The results release puts the board's proposed quarterly dividend at KZT1,000 per ADS. The meeting notice recommends 1 000 KZT per common share. The meeting also covers charter and board-regulation changes that the notice says rest on Kazakh legal requirements.

On operations, the company expects funding-cost pressure to ease from the fourth quarter. Fintech adjusted EBITDA growing again would support OptimistFi's view that the profit pools can keep compounding. Another flat quarter would weaken it.

Kaspi.kz also plans around 300 Magnum Daily stores by the end of 2027, up from a 42-store pilot that reached approximately 15% EBITDA margin. A new generation of its Kasper assistant is planned for later this year. Kasper has been used by 1.4 million consumers since July.